TRANSITION TO LOCAL LOW-CARBON ECONOMIES

With unprecedented levels of public sector debt (c.£4 trillion) and the prospect of an energy crunch likely to further undermine our economy within this Parliament, there is a high probability that we will experience a double-dip recession that could reduce our Government’s ability to pay down debt and meet future public sector liabilities, even with drastic public spending cuts.  Moreover, there isn't very much more the government can do to further stimulate the economy as interest rates are already at record low levels and taxation must increase in order to reduce the deficit.

In these circumstances, the economy could easily slip into a depression likely to be worse than the Great Depression as the global financial markets and our external creditors lose confidence in our ability to service our debts and another even worse credit crunch ensues.  Events in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have already rattled global investment communities and interest rates in these countries are likely to soar reflecting the perceived level of risk associated with their economic growth potential and thus their ability to repay debt.  Governments in these countries have had strict austerity measures imposed on them by their external creditors to ensure that they are able to service their debts.

As a centre of international finance, UK has accumulated the second largest external debt in the world (after US) of almost five times GDP that could easily result in it being next in line for austerity measures being imposed by external creditors.  Accordingly, the new coalition government is entirely focused on paying down debt as allowing public sector debt to continue rising in a shrinking economy is a recipe for disaster.  Moreover, to allow foreign creditors to dictate terms for repayment would mean a loss of control over our sovereignty and independence.

It is time for a “reality check” and for us all to confront these issues through urgent and radical change in our consumer orientated ways of life by transitioning towards local low-carbon economies with resilient communities as self-sufficient as possible.  Energy and food security are likely to become issues of paramount importance.

Consequently, I have created this discussion paper that aims to distil the assumptions that will influence outcomes in the near to medium term, outline a mitigation strategy and determine a road map to implement the strategy.  This document is a work in progress that will evolve as the detail emerges and constructive comments are received from those of you that would like to contribute to its ongoing development.

In an effort to reduce bureaucracy and costs, the new coalition government has introduced policies of decentralization and devolution of powers to Local Government with decision making at the community level which will depend on motivating the general public, that have hitherto been essentially apathetic to change and cynical of Local Government initiatives, to step forward and become sustainable community activists.

The Government has also recognized the urgent need to stimulate reform and empower society in its recent launch of “The Big Society” that aims to deliver cultural change and inspire social enterprise.

We are all in this together and must start a collective process of change in a spirit of collaboration and cooperation rather than the traditional adversarial approach to change favoured by older politics and conventional Capitalism that culminated in a dysfunctional Labour government and the economic mess we are now in.

THE UK 2010 GENERAL ELECTION & IMMINENT ENERGY CRUNCH

In the election debates broadcast on TV there has been an alarming absence of any political acknowledgement or discussion surrounding Peak Oil and the imminent energy crunch likely to undermine our economy during the next government's term of office.  Without secure and affordable sources of energy our economy cannot function let alone grow!  This is well documented in the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre video; "Natural Regression".

The first report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) is essential reading for anyone in authority and in a position to initiate energy security contingency planning down to the community level. Energy security will have a more direct and immediate impact on us all in the coming years, eclipsing the Government's priority to mitigate Climate Change.If you don't have time to read the whole report then just read the Forward by Lord Ron Oxburgh (former Chairman of Shell), the Executive Summary and Conclusions to get the gist of what is in store for us in the very near future.

Executive Summary extract:

"Energy policy in the UK: reversal of priorities?

Neither the government, nor the public, nor many companies, seem to be aware of the dangers the UK economy faces from imminent peak oil. Big as our current economic problems are, peak oil means a very high probability of worse problems to come.  The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the government’s risk-thinking, including terrorism.  Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policymaking, followed by energy security, with peak oil (if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy.  Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A.  The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking. First we need to buy insurance for our national economy against peak oil. Next in line comes wider energy security, because our gas supplies are much at risk from geopolitics.  We could in principle face the prospect of power shortages as soon as the coming winter, but on balance we believe a gas crunch is less likely to hit than peak oil before 2013.  Climate change in this approach comes third not because it is less important, but because its severest impacts are further out than 2013."

If we accept the above premise which is shared by Lloyd's Insurance (World leaders in risk assessment and management) and the US Military amongst many others, then we are running out of time to prepare contingency plans and mobilize resources to mitigate energy uncertainty as the timeframe for establishing a low-carbon local economy must therefore be brought forward from 2050 to within the next Parliament.

I have read all the political party policy Manifestos but none acknowledge Peak Oil or indicate a time-frame for urgent contingency planning and priority actions.  There has to be a policy on Peak Oil just as there is on Climate Change.

If the next Government intend to follow the time-frame simply to mitigate Climate Change set by the previous Government and EU Directives i.e. transition to a low carbon economy by 2050 then all is lost!  We urgently need to prepare communities for energy descent towards a low-carbon economy (imposed by over-population and ensuing resource depletion) by 2020 and no later. 

The enormity of the task ahead of us is made clear in the summary of Professor David MacKay’s speech to the House of Lords 13 January 2009.   He is now Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

From a risk management view point, it makes much more sense to plan for the more immediate energy crunch facing us as this will inevitably fulfill climate change mitigation too.

The February 2010 second report of the UK Industrial Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security concludes:

"The severity and impact of the Oil Crunch in terms of economic disruption will be largely determined by the degree to which the period to 2014 is used to plan and adapt to the real threat of restricted oil supplies"

Unfortunately, there does not seem to be any sense of urgency in dealing with this major issue which is very worrying. Cross party consensus on this is also essential as we can no longer continue to pretend there isn't a problem.

Everyone should be asking their election candidates if this is a top priority and what they would do about it?

Go here to find out who your election candidates are and then write to them to raise awareness and get some kind of response to this pressing major issue.

Doing nothing or the bare minimum is no longer an option as the economic and social implications of not preparing for massive energy cost hikes and supply disruptions are horrendous and could quickly lead to an extended national emergency.  Those of us that endured the early 1970s energy crisis temporarily imposed by the Arab oil embargo and coal miners’ strikes that resulted in fuel rationing and the three day work week can attest to this.

The difference this time is that because of energy resource depletion and the limited potential for renewable energy (for logistical and geopolitical reasons) there may be no viable way to avoid a long term energy crisis using conventional technologies which puts our National Security at high risk.

A possible long term solution to our looming energy crisis that warrants further investigation and evaluation can be found here.

All about Transition in the face of an uncertain future

I made a slide presentation All about Transition to a full session of Frome Town Councillors on Wednesday 4th November 2009 and have since updated it with new embedded web links to some of the articles that support what I said. Any words coloured blue contain hyperlinks that you just mouse click to view or download the relevant material, so the presentation is best read on line on any computer.

To activate the slide presentation after downloading it, simply open the saved document and press CTRL+L to view it in full screen mode. Then press any arrow key or enter to scroll through the pages.

Many of the Councillors asked questions that would have taken too long to answer in the time allocated so hopefully, if they activate the web links, they should see how I reached my conclusions. However, I would be pleased to answer any questions arising from this document.

Something wonderful just happened in Somerset

Rob Hopkins, author of ‘The Transition Handbook’, just posted our recent success in getting Somerset County Council to adopt a resolution to become the UK’s first Transition Authority.

Strategies for Local Government and Sustainable Communities

At the bottom of this page is a link to the latest edition of the report I have been working on since retiring to Frome in 2006. The report is constantly being updated and so you should frequently revisit this site to download the latest edition if it interests you. To read it you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer. 

Before retirement I knew nothing about Climate Change, other than what came on the television, and Peak Oil I discovered just recently. I knew even less about Government concerns for the future. 

It was only upon retirement that I have had the time and inclination to look into these matters in more detail. The results of my research and observations are captured in this document in an attempt to define the scope, scale and context of issues likely to be of major concern to us all over the next 20-25 years. 

This document comprises a collection of Internet links to other articles, including Government Reports, research documents and videos, contained within a narrative that I hope provides a guide to the many inter-related issues likely to concern us over this period. Consequently, the document is generic in nature and does not prescribe solutions specific to any town or community.

Each town has its own identity and unique circumstances with related issues that are up to the local community to identify through a consultation process so that they may create strategic plans to resolve these issues within a framework of concerns highlighted mainly by Government reports and the research documented. However, many of the issues that come to light will also be shared by other towns and villages. I expect that communities will accept, reject or more sensibly expand on what is already in this document that is relevant and important to them.

Unfortunately, in our fast moving and time-constrained society, most people are too busy and focused on their own immediate concerns to be familiar with many of the issues raised in this document that concern our future wellbeing. This is why I have created the document in the hope that it can raise awareness so that the community is better able to have intelligent and informed debate culminating in a Local Community Strategic Plan for a future that will probably be very different from what most of us expect.

I would draw your attention to the highlighted video links within my report and the recently published Cornwall Group Report, “The Impact of Peak Oil on Rural Communities”. This documents what could happen if we do nothing or not enough to mitigate the after effects of Peak Oil.

Community awareness of the issues raised in this document is paramount to creating a strategic community plan with any hope of success. I therefore urge you to become informed if you are not already and circulate this to everyone you know or think should be concerned, including your Member of Parliament. It is up to us to get this out to everyone!

The following link will download a document that you will find easier to read and work with if you save it first on your computer hard drive and then use the saved copy instead of the copy in your browser.

Strategies for Local Government and Sustainable Communities