Why is decentralisation imperative to our survival?

Have you ever noticed how London always seems to prosper, even in hard times and periods of rapid change?  How is that so when the rest of UK appears to be experiencing steady economic decline? Why, for example, are property values in London apparently unaffected by the recession and austerity measures now being imposed by the government while the rest of UK flounders in economic stagnation, flat or declining property values, growing unemployment and social decline?

The answer really is quite simple.

Generally speaking, the percentage of your pay packet that actually is available for spending in your local economy after paying for taxes, mortgages, insurance, utility bills and purchases from superstores, national chain stores or Internet stores, is minimal.  Most of your money, one way or another, finds its way to H.M.Treasury or out of town corporate head offices, usually based in London, at the expense of enriching your local economy.  This also means that land ownership becomes fragmented within communities as and when it is privately acquired or leased by these out of town corporations thus impeding development by local communities that may lack the financial resources to compete, particularly when common-land is in short supply or no longer available.  Reform of land ownership will likely become a growing issue and prerequisite to enabling increased local community land development.

For the past two centuries, London has not only been the seat of government but also the centre of finance, trade, commerce and economic decision making where our most significant corporations have chosen to maintain their headquarters, while industry developed and then declined elsewhere in Britain.  This has resulted in a substantial migration to London of not just the working population and immigrants but also our national income in the form of taxes paid, savings and investments and corporate profits.  It is no wonder that London and M25 dormitory towns have prospered while the rest of the nation is struggling.  Some people might even go so far as to say that this massive imbalance in the distribution of wealth and power has made London a voracious cancer or parasite sucking the life out of the rest of the nation (a legacy approach to governing inherited from our Empire days).  Why else would Scotland raise the thorny issue of independence from UK?

It is abundantly clear that radical surgery in the form of decentralisation is absolutely necessary if the patient (the nation) is to survive.  Moreover, London cannot survive on its own.  It is entirely dependent on imports of food, sources of energy and all other resources.  Its food footprint alone embraces much of southern England up to the Midlands.  In a world of rapidly depleting resources, London in its present form is unsustainable while its long and complex "just in time" food supply chains increasingly become hugely vulnerable to inexorably rising oil and gas prices.

Sensing a groundswell of national resentment, distrust and condemnation of the political, financial and corporate elites (based mainly in London) following the MPs expenses scandal and 2007/8 financial crisis, the government has set in motion legislation that it hopes will enable change by empowering Local Government and communities to have far more control of their destinies with the recent Royal Assent given to the Localism Act.  In theory, this Act should bring the decision-making processes closer to communities and make Local Authorities more accountable to the people they serve rather than central government (Whitehall Mandarins) that currently holds the purse strings and to whom they are now accountable.

A number of other Acts of Parliament are also being prepared to reform the NHS, Welfare, Justice, Planning and Education public services making them more accountable to end users and tax payers alike.  The government’s objectives are to simplify, reduce and streamline government thereby reducing administration costs as well as making government more transparent and accountable, quite often by privatising services and competitive tendering.  Consequently, we can expect strong resistance to this by the various government departments, professions, labour unions and contractors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo, many of whom could be said to have been milking the system for decades.  However, the nation is now essentially bankrupt and can no longer afford to function in its present form.  Radical change is necessary and inevitable or we risk ending up like Greece.

Projects that reinforce London’s central role in UK such as High Speed rail and a proposed new airport on the Thames estuary are “White Elephants” we cannot afford in these times of austerity with scarce resources when we have far higher priorities to attend to.  They are simply out of step with the government’s decentralisation policy and it is doubtful that we have the resources to implement them anyway.

The government are promoting their concept of the “Big Society” which makes it very clear that with the economy in recession and over-burdened with over-leveraged debt, it is up to local communities to become more self-sufficient and self-reliant – there are no substantial funds available to support communities in this endeavour.

We are entering a long period of debt de-leveraging (massive debt reduction or elimination) and economic stagnation as a result which could signal the beginning of a forced transition to a low-carbon steady state economy as the consequences of past reckless financial and economic decisions as well as rapidly depleting global resources, come to bear.

By now, it must be obvious to everyone that we have to develop local community solutions, through local worker owned social enterprise, to  mitigate the increasing high risk and probability of financial, economic and social collapse - especially if the Euro-zone collapses as many pundits predict.  This will also require communities to discover new ways to become as independent as possible of utility companies with ageing high maintenance infrastructures, as quickly as possible – for example, water and energy companies.  New technologies are being developed to enable this aided by Transition technologies being developed by the Transition Network.

2011 year end review and summary of conclusions:

1. Global population recently passed the 7 billion mark and is likely to double over the next seventy years, assuming a mere 1% growth rate.  Clearly, the world has reached a stage of over-population with unsustainable levels of population growth.  Consequently, a much greater awareness and deeper understanding of the exponential growth function and its broader implications for the human race are essential at all levels of society if civilisation is to survive and become sustainable within ecological and resource limits.   This must become part of a universal education curriculum that also promotes one child per family thus reducing or even eliminating over-population within a generation or so.
2. Natural resources and in particular non-renewable resources are being depleted at an alarming rate as a result of overpopulation and surging global economic development, particularly in Brazil, Russia, India and China.   Supplies of affordable fossil fuels (the current master resource) that enable globalisation are now in steepening decline as the Energy Return on Energy Invested to explore, extract, refine and distribute conventional oil and gas rapidly diminishes raising energy and thus food prices to increasingly unaffordable levels.
3. Current levels of fossil fuel consumption that fuel global economic growth and development are not sustainable because of rapidly depleting non-renewable oil and gas resources and unacceptably high CO2 emission levels threatening dangerous and possibly even catastrophic Climate Change.
4. Global economic growth is severely constrained by triple digit oil and gas prices and volatility in the energy markets, threatening to precipitate an even deeper double dip recession.  Consequently, it is essential that we quickly transition to low-carbon steady state economies that vigorously promote energy efficiency, energy conservation and a broad mix of alternative renewable sources of energy.
5. Current concepts of economics do not relate to a world with finite resources and are thus fundamentally flawed and unsustainable.
6. Current financial instruments, systems and regulations do not recognise any limits to growth and are therefore unsustainable.
7. Fiat currency transactions within fractional reserve banking systems that only thrive on the creation of ballooning amounts of debt (fuelling economic growth over the past decade or so), sooner or later collapse as and when debt loads are perceived to be no longer serviceable, forcing interest rates up and creditors to call in their loans or severely restrict credit (credit crunch), thereby destroying perceived asset values and confidence in business, the financial, property and commodity markets.  Ultimately, this results in spiralling economic decline or even economic collapse – a situation the Euro-zone and our own economy are fast approaching.
8. Capitalism as we now know it is in question because it fosters unbridled consumerism which is increasingly perceived as a self-destructive element within society while limited resources are being depleted at an alarming rate or become generally unaffordable.  What resources will be left for future generations to inherit?  Moreover, capitalism in its present form is controlled by about 1% or 2% of the population, creating a growing gulf between the disproportionately powerful super rich and poor.  A new approach to capitalism is required that also regulates a more intelligent, efficient, equitable sharing and management of Earth's waning resources and the wealth they bestow (beyond the control of speculators) while taking into account the ecological limits of growth on a planet with finite resources.  We must learn to effectively conserve remaining resources for future generations or the human race may simply wither away and eventually, even perish through lack of resources.  Alternatively, we must urgently learn how to exploit off-world resources in space and on other planets.
9. "The Optimum Population Trust (now Population Matters) believes that Earth may not be able to support more than half its present numbers before the end of this century, and that the UK's long-term sustainable population level may be lower than 30 million."
10. We are living in exceptional times. Scientists tell us that we have 10 years to change the way we live, avert the depletion of natural resources and the catastrophic evolution of the Earth's climate or, endure accelerating economic decline and collapse of our civilisation as Earth's resources are entirely consumed – before the end of this century.
11. The inevitable conclusion is that ultimately, the future survival of the human race depends on the exploitation of space and the eventual colonisation of other planets.
12. Mature advanced economies will have to take up the mantle of space resource exploitation (starting with Space Based Solar Power), while the rest of the world tries to catch-up by raising general standards of living to an extent limited by available affordable earth bound resources.  Advanced economies must also reduce consumption to facilitate this while focusing on improving the quality of life and well-being of their citizens rather than their standards of living.   With this in mind, the whole concept of GDP based economic growth and development becomes irrelevant because we have no choice but to reduce consumption and conserve resources for future generations.  If we don’t undertake this transition, then we face a grim century of devastating global resource wars, as well as civil strife and anarchy as populations become increasingly disaffected and civilisation self-destructs.  We have already witnessed the beginnings of this with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab Spring and recent riots in UK streets.  When will common-sense begin to prevail over short term vested interests that are not in our long term interests?

The Story of Broke (2011) - YouTube

The Story of Broke (2011) - YouTube
While the orientation of this excellent video is American, the same principles apply to any Western Government including our own UK Government

Are we facing long term economic stagnation with rampant energy and food poverty - or worse?

The escalating need to make a swift transition (planned descent) to a local diversified low-carbon Steady State economy becomes alarmingly apparent as our fossil fuel dependent global economies, the Eurozone and financial institutions show signs of unsustainable stress that conceivably could lead to rapid economic decline and even economic collapse as confidence in any prospect for economic growth evaporates while, in UK austerity measures to substantially reduce borrowing begin to take effect, unleashing industrial action not seen since the early 1970/80s and social unrest in the process.

Overburdened with debt and constrained by imported inflation due to the rising costs of rapidly depleting global resources as emerging markets aggressively compete (China in particular) for remaining resources, Western economies and especially consumer habits, expectations and life styles must change dramatically by becoming much more orientated towards supporting local community initiatives that enable local resilience to anticipated energy, food and financial shocks to come.  This will require a local commitment to a planned transition towards energy and food self-sufficiency so that communities can learn to live within ecological limits as far as is practicable - as was the case before the relatively short-lived advent of cheap fossil fuels less than 150 years ago.

In the near future and as austerity measures take effect, affordable and secure local sources of energy and food will increasingly become the highest priority for Government, local authorities and communities as the RSA/Soil Association and Richard Heinberg explains very well here.

For the sake of our children and grandchildren we must accelerate plans for rapid transition and empower communities now to implement these plans in order to reduce or avoid the high risk of energy and food poverty becoming rampant over the coming years.

Initiatives such as the People’s Supermarket are just one of many radical new ways for local social enterprise food markets to gain a foothold that challenges the stifling presence of conventional Supermarkets which are entirely dependent on highly vulnerable and long "just in time" supply chains - God help us all if any of these essential supply chains collapse before we have viable local alternatives including food preservation processes, eco-distribution systems and longer term food storage facilities in place.

Most importantly, local food production and distribution cooperatives keep cash flows local thereby enriching the local economy and communities instead of out of town and mainly distant, indifferent and often predatory corporations and shareholders.  It all comes down to applying common-sense and proactive risk management - are our authorities and communities up to it or not?

Collapse of the Euro-zone is a distinct possibility that the British Government are preparing contingency plans for.  In this event, it is quite likely that trade globalisation would come to an abrupt halt as, quite apart from the ensuing demand destruction for goods and services, many then insolvent banks would no longer be able to issue Letters of Credit that guarantee suppliers' payment upon delivery of imports.  This would have a catastrophic impact on our food and energy imports threatening rampant and severe food and energy poverty nationwide.  Rationing would have to be re-introduced to ensure fair distribution of restricted food and energy supplies while preserving essential services.

Attenborough’s RSA speech « Population Matters

Attenborough’s RSA speech « Population Matters  

How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth?
In a Horizon special, naturalist Sir David Attenborough investigates whether the world is heading for a population crisis.

In his lengthy career, Sir David has watched the human population more than double from 2.5 billion in 1950 to nearly seven billion. He reflects on the profound effects of this rapid growth, both on humans and the environment.

While much of the projected growth in human population is likely to come from the developing world, it is the lifestyle enjoyed by many in the West that has the most impact on the planet. Some experts claim that in the UK consumers use as much as two and a half times their fair share of Earth’s resources.

Sir David examines whether it is the duty of individuals to commit not only to smaller families, but to change the way they live for the sake of humanity and planet Earth.

Watch the full documentary now

Positive Money - Fixing what's wrong with the banks.

Positive Money - Fixing what's wrong with the banks.

Debt Crisis? Here's the Simple Solution

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YouTube - The End of growth-Richard Heinberg

YouTube - The End of growth-Richard Heinberg

Richard's book "The End of Growth" should be essential reading for everyone.  It is a masterpiece of research, observation and deduction which makes so much sense of the chaotic world we live in and the implications of this chaos for our common future.  I can't fault his logic and the conclusions he reaches which are shared by a growing number of economists and global market analysts. This book is easily read and I highly recommend that you buy your copy as soon as possible and read it from cover to cover.  You won't be disappointed!