Alex Malcolm

Politicians and Bankers - the harbingers of incompetence, hubris and humbug?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 15:51:00 +0000

It is apparent that from about 1971 onwards our politicians in collusion with the British banking elites that bankrolled the economy, knowingly or unwittinglyhave brought our economy to the brink of a debtcrisis abyss where the economy cannot grow because of the lack of capital for investment due to the credit crunch and new banking capital requirements. This led to dwindling business and consumer confidence in the economy. In these circumstances, the government is beginning to realise that they may not be able to service the burden of debt interest payments and reduce the national debt. The risks and probability of default on the national debt will grow tenfold if the Euro collapses as many pundits predict. Our credit rating is under scrutiny and may be adjusted downwards accordingly. How did this come about and why?

Looking back on my life and with the benefit of hindsight, I vividly remember years of double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates, energy rationing, social unrest, a three day work week and persistent high unemployment that encouraged me to consider and then take up job opportunities abroad; twice in the Middle East, Hong Kong, Canada and finally back to UK after twenty years or so. I suppose you could say I was a participant in a long “brain drain” period of UK history as many of my kinsmen became similarly disillusioned with UK prospects and tried to make a better life for themselves and their families abroad. Certainly, I did things and took on responsibilities that I never would have had the opportunity to do in UK, but those days are now well and truly over as we try to compete in a global economy with other more motivated, better educated and management skilled nations also with access to vast cheap labour markets.

The old British Imperial way of doing things is no longer internationally acceptable, affordable or practicable, but old habits die hard as the last decade or so of resource wars has revealed. Our politicians have squandered the British National Wealth with “gun boat diplomacy” in partnership with NATO and US military forces creating in the process an astronomic Defence budget deficit and a debt-laden economy further burdened with a number of colossal failed IT and other White Elephant projects that are still being proposed, much to my consternation.

Inflationreally began in earnest with UK money decimalisationin 1971 (which coincided with the ending of the Bretton Wood system of money management and shift to Fiat Currencies), the introduction of credit cards for the masses providing easy instant credit in 1972 and the 1973 entry to the EU. The following years were marked by double-digit inflation and wage demands to keep pace with the spiralling costs of living. House prices went through the roof and then crashed. By December 1973 the labour unions and miners’ strike had brought the UK economy to its knees and crippled power station coal supplies. This forced the Conservative government to bring into force a three-day work week.

Perceiving that matters were likely to get even worse in the years ahead under a Labour government, I started seriously thinking about leaving the UK with my then very young family and started my adventures abroad in August 1974. By 1976 the UK economic situation was so bad that the government had to request an IMF bailout.

The Thatcher government elected in 1979 had no alternative but to try and clear up the economic mess left by the Labour government (sounds familiar?) and pay back the IMF loan while unemploymentreached more than 3 million by the early 1980s. The only way to balance the books was to impose austerity measures, sell-off government assets (council houses) and privatise nationalised industries such as British Steel, British Airways and British Gas amongst many other utility companies. For a short while, taxes of 90% on North Sea Oil & Gas were the government’s saviour and a new source of wealth for the country.

To facilitate the sale of state-owned assets and industries as well as stimulate public interest in private investment in company shares, it was necessary to deregulate the Financial Markets. However, self-regulation by the financial markets resulted in the sell-off of 50% of UK companies to foreigners and culminated in the 2007-10 Financial Crisis after decades of reckless self-indulgent casinostyle investment banking and consumer debt fuelled economic growth made possible by the availability of easy credit by out of control fractional reserve banking that the government turned a blind eye to while massive profits and thus tax revenues were being made by a few elites at the expense of the taxpayer that had to bail them out when the markets crashed. To this day and unlike in Icelandand the US, no-one in UK has been held accountable and prosecuted for this mess, which is outrageous and absolutely unacceptable.

From 1979 to 1983 inflation was rampant and incomes generally lost purchasing power by as much as 50%. MPs' salaries were equally affected but it was not politically acceptable to increase them during a period of austerity and wage restraint. However, to offset inflation and dramatically rising costs, MPs were encouraged to claim expenses and a much broader range of allowances were introduced that were not curtailed until the 2009 Parliamentary Expenses scandal when the self-serving culture of many of our elected politicians was made public knowledge. This destroyed public confidence and trust in the political system prompting a call for major reform that still has not been completed.

The economy has gone full circle and once again we face the prospect of a long period of austerity and economic stagnation as debt is de-leveraged - only this time without the benefit of any State owned assets or industries worth selling to reduce debts. Meanwhile, rapidly diminishing tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas continues and we have become net importers of energy subject to global oil and gas price rises and international competition, rather than the exporters we were in the 1970-80s. Our energy supply chain is no longer securely under our control. The government have been accused of a lack of strategy and long term planning.

The situation has been exacerbated by a flood of immigrants over the past decade that I believe the government has consciously allowed to enter UK in an effort to stimulate economic growth and maintain demand for housing which traditionally has been a catalyst for economic growth. If we had stopped the flood of immigrants entering this country I firmly believe we would not have a housing problem, unemployment would be lower, welfare and social services would be less of a drain on national resources while house prices would have fallen after the financial crisis to a level that would be much more affordable, particularly by first time buyers in the settled population. However, this would neither suit the banks with massive toxic loans already on their balance sheets nor high volume house builders and property developers with large land banks on their books that would be devalued overnight leading to further bankruptcies in both the banking and construction industries with deflationary consequences for the property market generally.

Unlike property bubbles in USA, Ireland and Spain, the UK property bubblehas not yet burst. It has been artificially maintained by a combination of restricted land supply (planning land use) and restricted credit in conjunction with historically low interest rates and by allowing so many immigrants into the country to maintain demand for housing in competition with the settled population of first time home buyers or renters. Rental accommodation is similarly afflicted and both home rental and purchase price bubbles will likely burst as and when interest rates go up, which they must do sooner or later. Higher interest rates will trigger the sale of distressed home owned and investment rental properties as creditors desperately offload toxic loans on properties with negative equity which is created as and when debtors find they can no longer afford to service the loans on these properties.

Unlike the boom and bust years of 1970s and 1980s, the government and Bank of England this time reduced interest rates to an historic low of .05 % in a bid to stimulate economic growth and raise tax revenues to reduce past deficits. However, British industry, which is the only producer of wealth in real terms, has been allowed to decline in response to fierce global competition to such an extent that it has lost market share world-wide and has become too focused on trading with EU nations that are themselves in economic dire straits.

Meanwhile, the public sector has become bloated with bureaucrats in an attempt to soak up the unemployed laid off in the private sector during previous economic downturns when industry was allowed to decline and in many cases collapse – particularly in the north of England, Midlands and Wales. This is no longer sustainable. This time around, the austerity measures are centred on reducing public spending by reducing the size of the public sector which can no longer be funded at current levels by rapidly dwindling private sector tax revenues.

The government is now trying hard to create a more balanced export orientated economy trading with emerging growth economies such as those in Brazil, Russia, India and China, in order to become less reliant on tax revenues generated by profits from the financial markets which, coincidently, are also responsible for most of our debt. This strategy, however, is flawed as it assumes we are still ahead in most scientific and technical fields and can recover lost market share. Many of these emerging economies are more motivated, competitive and better management-skilled with a superior ingrained work ethic and "can do" attitude, are better educated having attended many of our Universities, and increasingly are taking the lead in innovation, science and technology. How can we compete with them now when we have lost the required industrial skills and collective experience with the collapse of various UK manufacturing industries over the past 30-40 years. We have done too little too late to re-skill the working population and achieve these aspirations? That is not to say we shouldn’t try but that we should be aware of what we are up against.

My generation has experienced the untold costs of double-digit inflation and double-digit interest rates during their early years of wealth accumulation, which meant that it took longer, was much harder and considerably more expensive to acquire sufficient wealth to retire on, particularly if you worked in the private sector where private Money Purchase and Defined Contribution pension plans prevail (unlike the the public sector where Defined Benefit plans are prevalent). This was followed by the current period of high volatility in the financial markets as well as the lowest savings interest rates and annuity income rates in history caused by Quantitative Easing, at retirement time. Now who do you think gained the most from all of this – yes, the bankers but there is no end to their avarice as they continue to award themselves colossal salaries and bonuses while we pay the price for their folly and try to grow our way out of the quagmire they created in the first place.

Consequently, the next generation will have to work even longer to accumulate enough wealth for retirement, partly because we are living longer which requires greater amounts of capital to derive income from especially when savings or annuity rates are so low, but mainly because disposable incomes for financial planning purposes will be substantially eroded by higher taxes to pay down the colossal national debts created over the past decade or so and by huge personal debt elimination requirements including student loans, six figure mortgages and credit cards etc. Moreover, the government State Pension changes that increase the State Pensionable age also rather presumes that there will still be jobs available for people in their late 60s and 70s before they become eligible for the State Pension, So far I haven't come across any - unless you want to stack supermarket shelves into your 80s, for example.

It is time to let the bankers bury themselves in their own mess and start afresh as the cost of delaying the inevitable collapse of the Euro, the ensuing collapse of the EU and our own economy becomes greater than allowing the collapse to actually happen now so we can start the painful process of building a new low-carbon Steady State economy with a clean balance sheet while we transitionto more sustainable local community based lifestyles - without the debt loads that enslaved us to enriching the one percent of the population that have brought us to this abyss. Nearly all of this debt has been created out of nothing anyway and is virtual debt. There simply is not enough money on planet earth to bail out the banks.

Let’s also get out of the EU ASAP so we can control our own destiny free of the burden of onerous EU counter productive regulations created by unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats, thereby relieving us to concentrate on establishing or improving trade with our Commonwealth nations and the rest of the world before it's too late and other less regulation burdened countries beat us to it.

2011 Innovators

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 18:22:00 +0000

2011 Innovators

Here are some fascinating renewable energy innovations that in time may become life changing energy solutions for many people on a global scale. Fossil fuel dependent economies and western society in general should seriously think about adopting some of these innovations while transitioning to low-carbon economies.

Why is decentralisation imperative to our survival?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 21:10:00 +0000

Have you ever noticed how London always seems to prosper, even in hard times and periods of rapid change? How is that so when the rest of UK appears to be experiencing steady economic decline? Why, for example, are property values in London apparently unaffected by the recession and austerity measures now being imposed by the government while the rest of UK flounders in economic stagnation, flat or declining property values, growing unemployment and social decline?

The answer really is quite simple.

Generally speaking, the percentage of your pay packet that actually is available for spending in your local economy after paying for taxes, mortgages, insurance, utility bills and purchases from superstores, national chain stores or Internet stores, is minimal. Most of your money, one way or another, finds its way to H.M.Treasury or out of town corporate head offices, usually based in London, at the expense of enriching your local economy. This also means that land ownership becomes fragmented within communities as and when it is privately acquired or leased by these out of town corporations thus impeding development by local communities that may lack the financial resources to compete, particularly when common-land is in short supply or no longer available.

For the past two centuries, London has not only been the seat of our government but also the centre of finance, trade, commerce and economic decision making where our most significant corporations have chosen to maintain their headquarters, while industry developed and then declined elsewhere in Britain. This has resulted in a substantial migration to London of not just the working population and immigrants but also our national income in the form of taxes paid, savings and investments and corporate profits. It is no wonder that London and M25 dormitory towns have prospered while the rest of the nation is struggling. Some people might even go so far as to say that this massive imbalance in the distribution of wealth and power has made London a voracious cancer or parasite sucking the life out of the rest of the nation (a legacy approach to governing inherited from our Empire days). Why else would Scotland raise the thorny issue of independence from UK?

It is abundantly clear that radical surgery in the form of decentralisation is absolutely necessary if the patient (the nation) is to survive. Moreover, London cannot survive on its own. It is entirely dependent on imports of food, sources of energy and all other resources. Its food footprint alone embraces much of southern England up to the Midlands. In a world of rapidly depleting resources, London in its present form is unsustainable while its long and complex "just in time" food supply chains increasingly become hugely vulnerable to inexorably rising oil and gas prices.

Sensing a groundswell of national resentment, distrust and condemnation of the political, financial and corporate elites (based mainly in London) following the MPs expenses scandal and 2007/8 financial crisis, the government has set in motion legislation that it hopes will enable change by empowering Local Government and communities to have far more control of their destinies with the recent Royal Assent given to the Localism Act. In theory, this Act should bring the decision-making processes closer to communities and make Local Authorities more accountable to the people they serve rather than central government (Whitehall Mandarins) that currently holds the purse strings and to whom they are now accountable.

A number of other Acts of Parliament are also being prepared to reform the NHS, Welfare, Justice, Planning and Education public services making them more accountable to end users and tax payers alike. The government’s objectives are to simplify, reduce and streamline government thereby reducing administration costs as well as making government more transparent and accountable, quite often by privatising services and competitive tendering. Consequently, we can expect strong resistance to this by the various government departments, professions, labour unions and contractors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo, many of whom could be said to have been milking the system for decades. However, the nation is now essentially bankruptand can no longer afford to function in its present form. Radical change is necessary and inevitable or we risk ending up like Greece.

Projects that reinforce London’s central role in UK such as High Speed rail and a proposed new airport on the Thames estuary are “White Elephants” we cannot afford in these times of austerity with scarce resources when we have far higher priorities to attend to. They are simply out of step with the government’s decentralisation policy and it is doubtful that we have the resources to implement them anyway.

The government are promoting their concept of the “Big Society” which makes it very clear that with the economy in recession and over-burdened with over-leveraged debt, it is up to local communities to become more self-sufficient and self-reliant – there are no substantial funds available to support communities in this endeavour.

We are entering a long period of debt de-leveraging (massive debt reduction or elimination) and economic stagnation as a result which could signal the beginning of a forced transition to a low-carbon steady state economy as the consequences of past reckless financial and economic decisions as well as rapidly depleting global resources, come to bear.

By now, it must be obvious to everyone that we have to develop local community solutions, through local worker owned social enterprise, to mitigate the increasing high risk and probability of financial, economic and social collapse - especially if the Euro-zone collapses as many pundits predict. This will also require communities to discover new ways to become as independent as possible of utility companies with ageing high maintenance infrastructures, as quickly as possible – for example, water and energy companies. New technologies are being developed to enable this aided by Transition technologies being developed by the Transition Network.

2011 year end review and summary of conclusions:

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 20:03:00 +0000

Global population recently passed the 7 billion markand is likely to double over the next seventy years, assuming a mere 1% growth rate. Clearly, the world has reached a stage of over-population with unsustainable levels of population growth. Consequently, a much greater awareness and deeper understanding of the exponential growth function and its broader implications for the human race are essential at all levels of society if civilisation is to survive and become sustainable within ecological and resource limits. This must become part of a universal education curriculum that also promotes one child per family thus reducing or even eliminating over-population within a generation or so.
Natural resources and in particular non-renewable resources are being depleted at an alarming rate as a result of overpopulation and surging global economic development, particularly in Brazil, Russia, India and China. Supplies of affordable fossil fuels (the current master resource) that enable globalisation are now in steepening decline as the Energy Return on Energy Investedto explore, extract, refine and distribute conventional oil and gas rapidly diminishes raising energy prices to increasingly unaffordable levels.
Current levels of fossil fuel consumption that fuel global economic growth and development are not sustainable because of rapidly depleting non-renewable oil and gas resources and unacceptably high CO2 emission levels threatening dangerous and possibly even catastrophic Climate Change.
Global economic growth is severely constrained by triple digit oil and gas prices and volatility in the energy markets, threatening to precipitate an even deeper double dip recession. Consequently, it is essential that we quickly transition to low-carbon steady state economies that vigorouslypromote energy efficiency, energy conservation and a broad mix of alternative renewable sources of energy.
Current concepts of economicsdo not relate to a world with finite resources and are thus fundamentally flawed and unsustainable.
Current financial instruments, systems and regulations do not recognise any limits to growth and are therefore unsustainable.
Fiat currency transactions within fractional reserve banking systems that only thrive on the creation of ballooning amounts of debt (fuelling economic growth over the past decade or so), sooner or later collapse as and when debt loads are perceived to be no longer serviceable, forcing interest rates up and creditors to call in their loans or severely restrict credit (credit crunch), thereby destroying perceived asset values and confidence in business, the financial, property and commodity markets. Ultimately, this results in spiralling economic decline or even economic collapse – a situation the Euro-zoneand our own economy are fast approaching.
Capitalism as we now know it is in question because it fosters unbridled consumerism which is increasingly perceived as a self-destructive element within society while limited resources are being depleted at an alarming rate or become generally unaffordable. What resources will be left for future generations to inherit? Moreover, capitalism in its present form is controlled by about 1% or 2% of the population, creating a growing gulf between the disproportionately powerful super rich and poor. A new approach to capitalismis required that also regulates a more intelligent, efficient, equitable sharing and management of Earth's waning resources and the wealth they bestow (beyond the control of speculators) while taking into account the ecological limits of growth on a planet with finite resources. We must learn to effectively conserve remaining resources for future generations or the human race may simply wither away and eventually, even perish through lack of resources. Alternatively, we must urgently learn how to exploit off-world resources in space and on other planets.
"The Optimum Population Trust (now Population Matters) believes that Earth may not be able to support more than half its present numbers before the end of this century, and that the UK's long-term sustainable population level may be lower than 30 million."
We are living in exceptional times. Scientists tell us that we have 10 years to change the way we live, avert the depletion of natural resources and the catastrophic evolution of the Earth's climate or, endure accelerating economic decline and collapse of our civilisation as Earth's resources are entirely consumed – before the end of this century.
The inevitable conclusion is that ultimately, the future survival of the human race depends on the exploitation of spaceand the eventual colonisation of other planets.
Mature advanced economies will have to take up the mantle of space resource exploitation (starting with Space Based Solar Power), while the rest of the world tries to catch-up by raising general standards of living to an extent limited by available affordable earth bound resources. Advanced economies must also reduce consumptionto facilitate this while focusing on improving the quality of life and well-being of their citizens rather than their standards of living. With this in mind, the whole concept of GDPbased economic growth and development becomes irrelevant because we have no choice but to reduce consumption and conserve resources for future generations. If we don’t undertake this transition, then we face a grim century of devastating global resource wars, as well as civil strife and anarchy as populations become increasingly disaffected and civilisation self-destructs. We have already witnessed the beginnings of this with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab Spring and recent riots in UK streets. When will common-sense begin to prevail over short term vested interests that are not in our long term interests?

The Story of Broke (2011) - YouTube

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 11:45:00 +0000

The Story of Broke (2011) - YouTube
While the orientation of this excellent video is American, the same principles apply to any Western Government including our own UK Government

Are we facing long term economic stagnation with rampant energy and food poverty - or worse?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:20:00 +0000

The escalating need to make a swift transition (planned descent) to a local diversified low-carbon Steady State economy becomes alarmingly apparent as our fossil fuel dependent global economies, the Eurozone and financial institutions show signs of unsustainable stress that conceivably could lead to rapid economic decline and even economic collapse as confidence in any prospect for economic growth evaporates while, in UK austerity measures to substantially reduce borrowing begin to take effect, unleashing industrial action not seen since the early 1970/80s and social unrest in the process.

Overburdened with debt and constrained by imported inflation due to the rising costs of rapidly depleting global resources as emerging markets aggressively compete (China in particular) for remaining resources, Western economies and especially consumer habits, expectations and life styles must change dramatically by becoming much more orientated towards supporting local community initiatives that enable local resilience to anticipated energy, food and financial shocks to come. This will require a local commitment to a planned transition towards energy and food self-sufficiency so that communities can learn to live within ecological limits as far as is practicable - as was the case before the relatively short-lived advent of cheap fossil fuels less than 150 years ago.

In the near future and as austerity measures take effect, affordable and secure local sources of energy and food will increasingly become the highest priority for Government, local authorities and communities as the RSA/Soil Association and Richard Heinberg explains very well here.

For the sake of our children and grandchildren we must accelerate plans for rapid transition and empower communities now to implement these plans in order to reduce or avoid the high risk of energy and food poverty becoming rampant over the coming years.

Initiatives such as the People’s Supermarket are just one of many radical new ways for local social enterprise food markets to gain a foothold that challenges the stifling presence of conventional Supermarkets which are entirely dependent on highly vulnerable and long "just in time" supply chains - God help us all if any of these essential supply chains collapse before we have viable local alternatives including food preservation processes, eco-distribution systems and longer term food storage facilities in place.

Most importantly, local food production and distribution cooperatives keep cash flows local thereby enriching the local economy and communities instead of out of town and mainly distant, indifferent and often predatory corporations and shareholders. It all comes down to applying common-sense and proactive risk management - are our authorities and communities up to it or not?

Collapse of the Euro-zone is a distinct possibility that the British Government are preparing contingency plans for. In this event, it is quite likely that tra de globalisation would come to an abrupt halt as, quite apart from the ensuing demand destruction for goods and services, many then insolvent banks would no longer be able to issue Letters of Credit that guarantee suppliers' payment upon delivery of imports. This would have a catastrophic impact on our food and energy imports threatening rampant and severe food and energy poverty nationwide. Rationing would have to be re-introduced to ensure fair distribution of restricted food and energy supplies while preserving essential services.

Attenborough’s RSA speech « Population Matters

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sun, 08 May 2011 09:35:00 +0000

Attenborough’s RSA speech « Population Matters

How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth?
In a Horizon special, naturalist Sir David Attenborough investigates whether the world is heading for a population crisis.

In his lengthy career, Sir David has watched the human population more than double from 2.5 billion in 1950 to nearly seven billion. He reflects on the profound effects of this rapid growth, both on humans and the environment.

While much of the projected growth in human population is likely to come from the developing world, it is the lifestyle enjoyed by many in the West that has the most impact on the planet. Some experts claim that in the UK consumers use as much as two and a half times their fair share of Earth’s resources.

Sir David examines whether it is the duty of individuals to commit not only to smaller families, but to change the way they live for the sake of humanity and planet Earth.

Watch the full documentary now

Positive Money - Fixing what's wrong with the banks.

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 07:41:00 +0000

Positive Money - Fixing what's wrong with the banks.

Debt Crisis? Here's the Simple Solution

Ever wondered why we're all in so much debt? This 3 minute video explains the root of the problem and what we need to do to end the debt crisis...

YouTube - The End of growth-Richard Heinberg

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 13:46:00 +0000

YouTube - The End of growth-Richard Heinberg

Richard's book "The End of Growth" should be essential reading for everyone. It is a masterpiece of research, observation and deduction which makes so much sense of the chaotic world we live in and the implications of this chaos for our common future. I can't fault his logic and the conclusions he reaches which are shared by a growing number of economists and global market analysts. This book is easily read and I highly recommend that you buy your copy as soon as possible and read it from cover to cover. You won't be disappointed!

21st Century Challenges for Civilization

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 09:47:00 +0000

We are on the threshold of unprecedented, rapid and unavoidable change over the next 10 to 20 years as we struggle to negotiate a path through a confluence of growing fundamental uncertainties, the scope and dynamics of which have never been encountered before by humanity at any one time. These uncertainties threaten local community security as well as national security. They include climate uncertainty, energy uncertainty, economic and financial uncertainty as well as political and employment uncertainties while global natural resource depletion is accelerated by growing demand for resources in the developing high growth economies of India, Brazil and China in an increasingly over-populated world.

Of all these uncertainties, energy uncertainty is perhaps the most ominous as it presents the most immediate and compelling direct threat to modern society and economic growth. In the Western world in particular, all human activity is entirely dependent on secure and affordable sources of energy which in turn underpins the value of all investments in global property, commodity and financial markets. Hence, with growing energy uncertainty we are experiencing unprecedented volatility in these markets which are now directed by short term speculation largely financed through speculative debt, rather than responsible long term investment strategies.

Approximately, 20% of the world’s population consume 80% of all resources. This obviously can’t continue indefinitely and dictates that already developed societies in the West (G8 Nations) must adopt sustainable and more self-sufficient lifestyles that will require a reversal of current cultural values and consumption habits in order that the standards of living in the rest of the world can catch up and be raised to an extent limited by available resources. The latest Chatham House report titled “More for Asia: Rebalancing World Oil and Gas” confirms that this investment and resource demand shift towards Asia and other developing economies is ongoing and has major geopolitical implications for North America and Europe over the next ten years.

Current unrest in North Africa and the Middle East highlights the need for UK energy independence as international tensions grow in proportion to the increasing risk of major oil and gas supply disruptions (highlighted recently in a US military report to Congress) in regions threatened by or undergoing regime change by popular demand. A revolution in Saudi Arabia, for example, would have a catastrophic impact on oil supplies worldwide that would undermine global economic recovery from the 2007/8 financial crisis to an extent that it may not be possible to recover from.

In a world with finite resources but ever increasing global demand for resources brought about by exponential population growth, coupled with the rising energy usage and costs of new technologies to increase resource extraction rates from less accessible or already diluted or depleted resource deposits, we will simply exhaust affordable resources much faster than any of us realise. Consequently, we have a very limited window of time for radical change to take place within.

"The Optimum Population Trust (now Population Matters) believes that Earth may not be able to support more than half its present numbers before the end of this century, and that the UK's long-term sustainable population level may be lower than 30 million."

Without rigorous but humane population and immigration controls (as effective as China's), the future standard of living of our children will decline rapidly with increasing competition for dwindling resources and job opportunities. Western society in general is only just beginning to appreciate that increasing population and greater population densities simply dilute the resource per capita share, dilute democracy, the value of individual worth, individual growth potential, opportunities for employment and thus, the ability to have any individual control or even influence over the quality of life that can be expected in a world with severely depleted resources.

These are stark realities that many people will have great difficulty in accepting and facing up to, preferring instead to maintain the “status quo” that they have a lifelong vested interest in. This attitude is reactive and can only lead to increasing the risks of international conflict or resource wars.

It is essential that we adopt a proactive attitude towards preparing society for a very different future by promoting and enabling cultural change towards sustainable lifestyles.

This can only happen with reform of our sense of values and perceptions of what is important for the future of humanity, bringing our whole value system into question. Can we continue to condone or morally justify the excessive amounts invested in military spending or being paid to a few sports and entertainment celebrities, business or government elites and bankers, for example, when this money can be better channelled towards developing more equitable and self-sufficient communities within a low-carbon economy? How can we develop a fairer and better distribution of wealth throughout a more inclusive society? What are the core values that society should aspire to? Which is more important - standard of living or quality of life? The two are not necessarily intertwined or mutually dependent. It is high time we reviewed these fundamentals that underpin our “advanced” civilisation because the current Government policy of economic growth at all costs may literally cost the earth and eventually consign our advanced civilisation to oblivion. Capitalism as we know it must undergo radical change or perish.

In the UK, the new Coalition Government has recognized the urgent need to stimulate reform, substantially reduce costs and waste, eliminate bureaucracy and red tape that get in the way of progress and empower communities in its recent launch of “The Big Society” which aims to deliver cultural change and inspire social enterprise, highlighting the urgent need to increase community resilience and self-sufficiency through Localism and Relocalisation. The differences between Localism and Relocalisation are explained here.

All communities should be looking at ways to collaborate, share scarce resources and take advantage of these reforms to help regenerate many of the now derelict commercial and industrial sites that have become casualties of globalisation, in a bid to stimulate local employment. This is because the necessity for local employment will increase exponentially as the costs of fuel and travel escalate beyond the means of the majority of residents that commute daily to distant places of employment. However, this will depend on communities taking a significantly more proactive or pragmatic “hands on” and “can do” approach to shaping their future. This also means communities must accept that they can no longer expect big business (e.g. Superstores and national property developers) or Local Government to cater to all their demands for facilities, goods and services and that they will have to begin a process to help themselves as the government’s austerity measures combined with growing inflation stemming from the rising costs of imported goods and resources add momentum to a spiral of economic contraction that further reduces local business and employment opportunities which in turn limit access to credit and diminish the general well-being of a cash-strapped society.

The UK government is desperate for private enterprise to employ the mass of people expected to be laid-off in the public sector but fails to recognise that businesses can only respond to consumer demand for goods and services. If consumer demand falls due to rising unemployment, concerns about job security and a lack of confidence in an economy with restricted access to credit, then employment opportunities in the private sector will also fall. This leaves social enterprise (charities, local community or worker owned enterprises) as the most hopeful source of future gainful employment, financed through credit unions, mutuals or co-operatives as well as Local Government issued bonds and debentures guaranteed by local Council Tax payers for those projects that we all have a stake in. Local development of microcredit organisations, similar to those in Bangladesh, may also enable new small business opportunities in UK.

Capital raised on the open financial markets will do what it always does which is fly to where it gets the greatest return on investment. Currently, this is in the developing high growth economies of Brazil, India and China which has led to a vacuum of investment capital in North America and Europe that have had to resort to large scale borrowing to stimulate growth over the past decade or so. However, credit has been over-leveraged and severely restricted by the continuing high risk of economic contraction and new banking capitalisation requirements in the wake of the 2007/8 financial crisis.

Partnerships between local businesses, social enterprises, Local Government and communities must be established so that a consensus can be achieved as to how best to develop local resilience to anticipated energy, food, employment and financial shocks to come. This will necessarily test local direct democracy to the full extent possible.

The degree and pace of change necessary to enable transition (planned descent) to a low-carbon steady state economy can be compared with that of the extraordinary transformation of China from a large backward nation, recovering from a long bloody Cultural Revolution, to an economic super-power in the space of a mere 30 years. Conversely, due to over-population, ensuing resource depletion and climate change, we face the increasing risk of impending economic collapse the longer we procrastinate and fail to swiftly make the transition to a low-carbon Steady State economy. The degree of urgency has never been greater. Change needs to take place on a wartime footing if we are to succeed. As Lester Brown of The Earth Policy Institute puts it:

“Continuing with business as usual (Plan A), which is destroying the economy’s eco-supports and setting the stage for dangerous climate change, is no longer a viable option. It is time for Plan B. There are four overriding goals in Plan B: stabilizing climate, stabilizing population, eradicating poverty, and restoring the earth’s ecosystems. At the heart of the climate-stabilizing initiative is a detailed plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020 in order to hold the global temperature rise to a minimum. The climate initiative has three components: raising energy efficiency, developing renewable sources of energy, and expanding the earth’s forest cover both by banning deforestation and by planting billions of trees to sequester carbon.”

“Plan B includes a wholesale restructuring of the world energy economy with a wartime sense of urgency, much as the U.S. restructured its industrial economy in a matter of months at the beginning of World War II. The stakes in World War II were high, but they are far higher today. What is at issue now is whether we can mobilize fast enough to save our global civilization.”

Space Energy - TED Space Energy Presentation- Peter Sage

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:45:00 +0000

Space Energy - TED Space Energy Presentation - Peter Sage

Space Energy seeks to improve the lives of millions of people, provide viable alternatives to polluting energy sources and help abate some of the challenges caused by increasing demand for energy and declining natural resources.

The concept of SBSP (Space Based Solar Power) was theorized over 40 years ago by renowned scientist Dr. Peter Glaser. Since then, in response to periodic energy crises, the idea has been re-evaluated from time to time by the U.S. Department of Energy, NASA, major aerospace companies and countries such as Japan and India. Their studies generally concluded that there is no technical barrier to implementing SBSP; rather, the principal impediment has been economics -- the ability to provide SBSP at a cost that is competitive with other energy sources...

However, as we rapidly run out of affordable non-renewable fossil fuel sources of energy and before competition to access what remains becomes too aggressive risking international conflict, the imperative is to find long term alternative sources of base load renewable energy that are also environmentally friendly before catastrophic Climate Change becomes irreversible.

Energy generated from Uranium fuelled nuclear fission is not a viable long term alternative to fossil fuel generated energy, particularly when taking into account the costs for radioactive waste safe storage and disposal as well as lengthy decommissioning and decontamination costs that can run into billions over a period of sixty years or more after the power plant is closed down. Moreover, global non-renewable supplies of uranium are now limited.

Energy derived from Thorium fuelled nuclear fission is experimental at this stage and might become an important contributor to the base load global energy mix.

Energy derived from earth bound nuclear fusion remains a distant possibility but, why would we want to create a nuclear fusion reactor on earth when we already have one in the form of the sun freely pouring infinite amounts of energy over us?

There is only one reliable, clean and secure source of renewable energy with the potential to meet all future global base load demand for energy in perpetuity and that is Space Based Solar Power. All we have to do is reach up and capture this energy.

Hundreds, possibly even thousands of Communication satellites have been using similar technology for decades to broadcast Satellite TV and Radio worldwide - why not take this a step further and broadcast or narrow-cast energy to where it is needed by using microwave or laser technology to achieve SBSP from large solar furnace or PV arrays in space?

The time has now come for international government collaboration to create the commercial environment and incentives that foster rapid development of this new approach to generating energy well before the Energy Return on Energy Invested to extract, refine and distribute conventional oil and gas becomes no longer viable or affordable.

Energy companies and in particular oil and gas companies with vast financial resources at their disposal, must start to think about diversifying their operations into the new realm of SBSP by partnering with aerospace companies and energy distribution companies to expedite the development of this energy source for humanity's long term consumption. The sooner the better!

Home Project

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 10:29:00 +0000

"We are living in exceptional times. Scientists tell us that we have 10 years to change the way we live, avert the depletion of natural resources and the catastrophic evolution of the Earth's climate.

The stakes are high for us and our children. Everyone should take part in the effort, and HOME has been conceived to take a message of mobilization out to every human being."

More for Asia: Rebalancing World Oil and Gas

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 11:52:00 +0000

This December 2010 Chatham House report makes interesting reading and confirms what many of us have believed for years:

Extract from the Executive Summary:

"The oil and gas industry is set to undergo a decisive transition over the next 10 years as global balances of demand and investment shift towards Asia and away from Europe and North America. These are sectors where geography matters and such a transition will have major geopolitical implications and a profound effect on industrial strategy. Oil and gas companies and their governments also face unprecedented uncertainties over a growing range of issues, including the development of low-carbon policies, shale gas, questions about Iraqi oil production, and surging demand in China.

Asia will account for 60% of global oil deficits by around 2030. Its oil demand is already beginning to exceed and outstrip the net surpluses available from the Middle East. Europe will no longer be able to rely on Middle East surpluses to meet its oil deficits. It will instead have to look to Russia as its default supplier of oil, while competing with Asian importers for supplies from areas such as West Africa, Northern Iraq, Central Asia and Eastern Siberia which are pivotal between Asian and Atlantic markets. This is a development that will carry major policy implications: the EU needs a stable political and security relationship with Russia within which energy trade and investment can develop, while also developing policies that combine or pre-empt the policies of individual member states in relations affecting gas and oil supply from Russia and the pivotal supply areas...."

Signs that this has been going on for sometime comes from BP who recently agreed a share swap with Rosneft, the Russian government-owned oil company, that will become the owner of 5 per cent of BP's shares in exchange for approximately 9.5 percent of Rosneft shares.

This would appear to be a smart move on BP's part which does much to bolster the company's credibility following the Deepwater Horizon Disaster. However there are caveats to this highlighted by Shadow Justice Minister Chris Bryant who said: "The level of corruption in Russia is completely unchecked." So watch out BP as you enter the lion's den!

European and North American governments will be watching developments very closely as energy supplies and their National Security may be at risk judging from past experience which could raise international tensions. It is essential that the West develop alternative sources of energy that guarantee long term energy security and therefore energy independence. One major source of energy is of course the sun and hopefully this real and present threat to our national security will spur our governments on to not only find ways to mobilise energy efficiency and conservation on a massive scale but accelerate development of Space Based Solar Power which is the most effective way to harvest the freely available constant flow of unlimited clean energy radiating from the sun.

Why governments and power companies are prepared to squander colossal amounts of tax payer's money on developing either more fission nuclear power plants, with all their inherent complexities, risks, waste storage and decommissioning costs, or fusion nuclear power which remains a remote reality, is a complete mystery to me when we already have a fusion reactor in the form of the sun pouring unlimited amounts of energy over us free of charge all the time. All we have to do is reach up and capture this energy with technology that has been available for over half a century.

300 Years of FOSSIL FUELS in 300 Seconds

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:41:00 +0000

This video sums it all up and aptly portrays how humanity has progressed over the past 300 years.

High Speed Rail - A rather large "White Elephant" in a small country?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:43:00 +0000

For a Government advocating Localism, de-centralisation and devolution of power to local government and communities, I am astonished that it should also promote an exceptionally expensive high speed railway that reinforces London's central role within UK in stark contrast to these policies and only reduces journey time to Central London by a mere 30 minutes for the relatively few people having access to the service when compared with the total number of taxpayers expected to contribute to it. Moreover, this does not make any sense at all while there are far more important priorities to attend to during these times of austerity and economic uncertainty with a fast approaching energy crunch already on the horizon. What is the Business Case for this and who prioritises how tax payers money is best spent in the National Interest?

This has the stench of another enormous “White Elephant” about it similar to that of the MOD’s requirement for new but obsolete and vulnerable aircraft carriers without aircraft or affordable aviation and marine fuel oils to operate with at some near point in time post peak oil which, according to the International Energy Agency, occurred in 2006.

Our politicians seem to be completely out of touch with the real world and the issues confronting the 21^st century. 19^th and 20^th century military and economic models no longer apply and current events have shown that unlimited growth dependent economies based on leveraged credit (fractional-reserve banking) are unsustainable in a world with finite resources. Global resource depletion of all kinds is already impacting economic growth potential worldwide thereby threatening a century of international conflict.

In the immediate years ahead, we need to focus on the following:

Massively reducing climate changing emissions, possibly with the assistance of geoenginering, while developing sources of renewable energy including Spaced Based Solar Power in collaboration or partnership with Japan or any other world power.
Electrifying all forms of transport – dependent on future capacity of secure base load renewable energy supplies and availability of Rare Earth Metals essential to green technologies.
De-carbonising the current “just in time” food supply chain which is extremely vulnerable to peak oil.
Developing new methods of sustainable self-sufficiency in local food production, storage, food preservation and distribution.
De-centralising, diversifying and automating manufacturing capabilities as well as building capacity beyond already congested industrial and manufacturing areas in order to facilitate re-localisation.
Improving, extending and electrifying existing rail networks to facilitate overnight long haul freight and re-localisation.
Improving interconnects between road, rail, air, sea, river and canal transport systems resulting overall in a more integrated, energy efficient and optimized national transport network.

Deploying nationwide high speed fibre optic networks that enable global multimedia communications including video conferencing that dramatically reduces the need for business or personal travel and facilitates remote industrial, manufacturing and research capabilities.
Ensuring full productive employment and that a greater share of the national wealth is more evenly distributed throughout UK to improve social welfare and provide for a rapidly aging population.
Ensuring an end to hubris and national wealth being squandered in questionable overseas military campaigns, unnecessary mega-projects or bailing out insolvent Bankers.
Compensating prudent savers, and in particular pensioner's savings, for the unexpected loss of interest income arising from Government emergency measures to rescue reckless financial institutions from insolvency while sheltering overextended borrowers from a similar fate by imposing historically low interests rates and printing money to underwrite the unknown full extent of remaining toxic loans on bank balance sheets.

The dreadful state of the UK economy and finances has come about because of inadequate regulation of UK Financial Services by successive Governments and incompetent Government Financial Services "watch dogs"! It appears that past Governments turned a "blind eye" to the excessive risks attached to extremely lucrative activities of a few amoral business and finance elites engaged in short term speculative investments which generated extraordinary capital gains and thus tax revenues that in turn seduced our Governments into supporting the interests of the elite at the expense of the long term interests of the people they were supposed to serve and protect. The inevitable financial catastrophe that followed in 2007/8 almost caused the total collapse of the UK banking sector were it not for a massive injection of public funds. Recorded history dictates that they should have known better.

"Business as usual" is no longer sustainable. It is time for radical change and long term investment in people and the things that society really needs, including re-skilling of the working population so that this nation can once again become an industrial and self-sufficient agricultural nation. Transition Town Totnes is an example of what many communities will aspire to and want to achieve when confronted with years of economic contraction as competition for and access to dwindling resources becomes increasingly restricted by rising costs beyond what most people can comfortably afford.

TRANSITION TO LOCAL LOW-CARBON ECONOMIES

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 10:49:00 +0000

With unprecedented levels of public sector debt (c.£4 trillion) and the prospect of an energy crunch likely to further undermine our economy within this Parliament, there is a high probability that we will experience a double-dip recession that could reduce our Government’s ability to pay down debt and meet future public sector liabilities, even with drastic public spending cuts. Moreover, there isn't very much more the government can do to further stimulate the economy as interest rates are already at record low levels and taxation must increase in order to reduce the deficit.

In these circumstances, the economy could easily slip into a depression likely to be worse than the Great Depression as the global financial markets and our external creditors lose confidence in our ability to service our debts and another even worse credit crunch ensues. Events in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have already rattled global investment communities and interest rates in these countries are likely to soar reflecting the perceived level of risk associated with their economic growth potential and thus their ability to repay debt. Governments in these countries have had strict austerity measures imposed on them by their external creditors to ensure that they are able to service their debts.

As a centre of international finance, UK has accumulated the second largest external debt in the world (after US) of almost five times GDP that could easily result in it being next in line for austerity measures being imposed by external creditors. Accordingly, the new coalition government is entirely focused on paying down debt as allowing public sector debt to continue rising in a shrinking economy is a recipe for disaster. Moreover, to allow foreign creditors to dictate terms for repayment would mean a loss of control over our sovereignty and independence.

It is time for a “reality check” and for us all to confront these issues through urgent and radical change in our consumer orientated ways of life by transitioning towards local low-carbon economies with resilient communities as self-sufficient as possible. Energy and food security are likely to become issues of paramount importance.

Consequently, I have created this discussion paper that aims to distil the assumptions that will influence outcomes in the near to medium term, outline a mitigation strategy and determine a road map to implement the strategy. This document is a work in progress that will evolve as the detail emerges and constructive comments are received from those of you that would like to contribute to its ongoing development.

In an effort to reduce bureaucracy and costs, the new coalition government has introduced policies of decentralization and devolution of powers to Local Government with decision making at the community level which will depend on motivating the general public, that have hitherto been essentially apathetic to change and cynical of Local Government initiatives, to step forward and become sustainable community activists.

The Government has also recognized the urgent need to stimulate reform and empower society in its recent launch of “The Big Society” that aims to deliver cultural change and inspire social enterprise.

We are all in this together and must start a collective process of change in a spirit of collaboration and cooperation rather than the traditional adversarial approach to change favoured by older politics and conventional Capitalism that culminated in a dysfunctional Labour government and the economic mess we are now in.

THE UK 2010 GENERAL ELECTION & IMMINENT ENERGY CRUNCH

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sun, 09 May 2010 09:37:00 +0000

In the election debates broadcast on TV there has been an alarming absence of any political acknowledgement or discussion surrounding Peak Oil and the imminent energy crunch likely to undermine our economy during the next government's term of office. Without secure and affordable sources of energy our economy cannot function let alone grow! This is well documented in the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre video; "Natural Regression".

The first report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) is essential reading for anyone in authority and in a position to initiate energy security contingency planning down to the community level. Energy security will have a more direct and immediate impact on us all in the coming years, eclipsing the Government's priority to mitigate Climate Change.If you don't have time to read the whole report then just read the Forward by Lord Ron Oxburgh (former Chairman of Shell), the Executive Summary and Conclusions to get the gist of what is in store for us in the very near future.

Executive Summary extract:

"Energy policy in the UK: reversal of priorities?

Neither the government, nor the public, nor many companies, seem to be aware of the dangers the UK economy faces from imminent peak oil. Big as our current economic problems are, peak oil means a very high probability of worse problems to come. The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the government’s risk-thinking, including terrorism. Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policymaking, followed by energy security, with peak oil (if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy. Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A. The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking. First we need to buy insurance for our national economy against peak oil. Next in line comes wider energy security, because our gas supplies are much at risk from geopolitics. We could in principle face the prospect of power shortages as soon as the coming winter, but on balance we believe a gas crunch is less likely to hit than peak oil before 2013. Climate change in this approach comes third not because it is less important, but because its severest impacts are further out than 2013."

If we accept the above premise which is shared by Lloyd's Insurance (World leaders in risk assessment and management) and the US Military amongst many others, then we are running out of time to prepare contingency plans and mobilize resources to mitigate energy uncertainty as the timeframe for establishing a low-carbon local economy must therefore be brought forward from 2050 to within the next Parliament.

I have read all the political party policy Manifestos but none acknowledge Peak Oil or indicate a time-frame for urgent contingency planning and priority actions. There has to be a policy on Peak Oil just as there is on Climate Change.

If the next Government intend to follow the time-frame simply to mitigate Climate Change set by the previous Government and EU Directives i.e. transition to a low carbon economy by 2050 then all is lost! We urgently need to prepare communities for energy descent towards a low-carbon economy (imposed by over-population and ensuing resource depletion) by 2020 and no later.

The enormity of the task ahead of us is made clear in the summary of Professor David MacKay’s speech to the House of Lords 13 January 2009. He is now Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

From a risk management view point, it makes much more sense to plan for the more immediate energy crunch facing us as this will inevitably fulfill climate change mitigation too.

The February 2010 second report of the UK Industrial Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security concludes:

"The severity and impact of the Oil Crunch in terms of economic disruption will be largely determined by the degree to which the period to 2014 is used to plan and adapt to the real threat of restricted oil supplies"

Unfortunately, there does not seem to be any sense of urgency in dealing with this major issue which is very worrying. Cross party consensus on this is also essential as we can no longer continue to pretend there isn't a problem.

Everyone should be asking their election candidates if this is a top priority and what they would do about it?

Go here to find out who your election candidates are and then write to them to raise awareness and get some kind of response to this pressing major issue.

Doing nothing or the bare minimum is no longer an option as the economic and social implications of not preparing for massive energy cost hikes and supply disruptions are horrendous and could quickly lead to an extended national emergency. Those of us that endured the early 1970s energy crisis temporarily imposed by the Arab oil embargo and coal miners’ strikes that resulted in fuel rationing and the three day work week can attest to this.

The difference this time is that because of energy resource depletion and the limited potential for renewable energy (for logistical and geopolitical reasons) there may be no viable way to avoid a long term energy crisis using conventional technologies which puts our National Security at high risk.

A possible long term solution to our looming energy crisis that warrants further investigation and evaluation can be found here.

All about Transition in the face of an uncertain future

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:27:00 +0000

I made a slide presentation All about Transition to a full session of Frome Town Councillors on Wednesday 4th November 2009 and have since updated it with new embedded web links to some of the articles that support what I said. Any words coloured blue contain hyperlinks that you just mouse click to view or download the relevant material, so the presentation is best read on line on any computer.

To activate the slide presentation after downloading it, simply open the saved document and press CTRL+L to view it in full screen mode. Then press any arrow key or enter to scroll through the pages.

Many of the Councillors asked questions that would have taken too long to answer in the time allocated so hopefully, if they activate the web links, they should see how I reached my conclusions. However, I would be pleased to answer any questions arising from this document.

Something wonderful just happened in Somerset

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 10:03:00 +0000

Rob Hopkins, author of ‘The Transition Handbook’, just posted our recent success in getting Somerset County Council to adopt a resolution to become the UK’s first Transition Authority.

Strategies for Local Government and Sustainable Communities

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Malcolm) — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 14:28:00 +0000

At the bottom of this page is a link to the latest edition of the report I have been working on since retiring to Frome in 2006. The report is constantly being updated and so you should frequently revisit this site to download the latest edition if it interests you. To read it you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your computer.

Before retirement I knew nothing about Climate Change, other than what came on the television, and Peak Oil I discovered just recently. I knew even less about Government concerns for the future.

It was only upon retirement that I have had the time and inclination to look into these matters in more detail. The results of my research and observations are captured in this document in an attempt to define the scope, scale and context of issues likely to be of major concern to us all over the next 20-25 years.

This document comprises a collection of Internet links to other articles, including Government Reports, research documents and videos, contained within a narrative that I hope provides a guide to the many inter-related issues likely to concern us over this period. Consequently, the document is generic in nature and does not prescribe solutions specific to any town or community.

Each town has its own identity and unique circumstances with related issues that are up to the local community to identify through a consultation process so that they may create strategic plans to resolve these issues within a framework of concerns highlighted mainly by Government reports and the research documented. However, many of the issues that come to light will also be shared by other towns and villages. I expect that communities will accept, reject or more sensibly expand on what is already in this document that is relevant and important to them.

Unfortunately, in our fast moving and time-constrained society, most people are too busy and focused on their own immediate concerns to be familiar with many of the issues raised in this document that concern our future wellbeing. This is why I have created the document in the hope that it can raise awareness so that the community is better able to have intelligent and informed debate culminating in a Local Community Strategic Plan for a future that will probably be very different from what most of us expect.

I would draw your attention to the highlighted video links within my report and the recently published Cornwall Group Report, “The Impact of Peak Oil on Rural Communities”. This documents what could happen if we do nothing or not enough to mitigate the after effects of Peak Oil.

Community awareness of the issues raised in this document is paramount to creating a strategic community plan with any hope of success. I therefore urge you to become informed if you are not already and circulate this to everyone you know or think should be concerned, including your Member of Parliament. It is up to us to get this out to everyone!

The following link will download a document that you will find easier to read and work with if you save it first on your computer hard drive and then use the saved copy instead of the copy in your browser.

Strategies for Local Government and Sustainable Communities